IRAN LOST: Parades, Missiles, and Regime Change

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"So let's change this notion that a long-awaited Iranian replacement army will ride in on tanks and jeeps, because its wheelchairs and walkers, at best."

IRAN LOST

U.S. as "Mediator": Nearly two years ago we talked about the Biden administration coming in and partnering with Israel, mafia-style, to limit Israel's response in Gaza.

Well, this week, the Trump administration came in and partnered with Iran, mafia-style, to serve as mediator for a ceasefire with Israel.

Iran then agreed to a ceasefire with Israel through this mediator; the same mediator who just openly and publicly blew up their nuclear facilities; the same mediator who just bombed them with some of the heaviest non-nuclear bombs in existence; the same mediator who may have just ended Iran's Golden Ticket to survival.

Golden Ticket: And why a Golden Ticket? Ukraine transferred its Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia in 1994, replacing those weapons with a promise of Western protection. Ukraine was eventually invaded by Russia. Iraq's nuclear reactor was bombed by Israel in 1981. Iraq was eventually invaded by the United States. Meanwhile, no one invades North Korea or Pakistan. That's a Golden Ticket.

The Ayatollah knows this, the Mullahs know this, and we know this. So if your "mediator" just blew up your path to survival, you're not dealing with a winning hand. We'll go through some of Iran's losses.

Defense: As for Iran's ability to defend itself, within a matter of hours -- hours, Iran had no air defense and no air force. It then absorbed days of unfettered bombings by Israel and later the US. Iran's Chinese, Russian, and domestic-made defense equipment proved itself completely ineffective against Israeli attack. And Iran knows full well that if it was ineffective today, it will be ineffective tomorrow.

Counter-Intelligence: As for domestic counter-intelligence, Israel reportedly operated a drone base in Iran, near Tehran. A drone facility that destroyed Iran's own air defenses and rocket launchers from within. Meaning, the regime was, and in the future will be, unable to monitor its own territory from enemy infiltration.

Israel also assassinated numerous Iranian scientists and military leaders, both where they lived and worked and then also to where they fled. And all this in a time of war and after Israel had killed Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and an IRGC chief in Damascus. Meaning, even being on alert, Iran was, and in the future will be, completely helpless against Israeli penetrations, be it HUMINT, SIGINT, or other means.

Iran Reputation: And we're talking about Iran. A battle-tested regime with very formidable military and intelligence capabilities: a regime constantly threatened by domestic opposition groups; a regime with a history of foreign intelligence operations ranging from the AMIA bombings in Argentina to assassinations in Turkey and Europe; a regime involved in military conflicts from its war against Iraq to constant conflicts from surrounding neighbors; a regime with one of the largest and most far-ranging missile stockpiles in the whole world.

For context, according to US News World Reports, Iran has the 6th strongest army in the world, stronger than the UK, France, India, and Turkey. (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/strong-military)

And according to Wikipedia, the CIA (prior to its 2015 restructure) maintained only 7 area divisions, one of which was Iran Operations. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organizational_structure_of_the_Central_Intelligence_Agency)

Israeli Will: So THIS is the Iran that Israel went to war with. THIS is the Iran that Israel attacked, not the Iran that Israel manhandled for 12 days. And for that reason, the bravery and willingness of Israel's political and military leaders to unabashedly use Israeli strength and withstand Western criticism may arguably be one of the greatest war-losses to not only Iran but to all of Israel's foes.

And that is why Israelis should be amazed not only at the accomplishments of the air force and intelligence agencies, but also the courage of our military and political leaders, starting with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

So Israelis, don't be fooled by Iran's victory parade. Iran has lost. And lost badly.

MISSILES WON'T RUN OUT

With all these accomplishments, the next obvious question is why stop? Why not regime change? And for this, we'll have to tackle some more fallacies.

Borders: Firstly, Iran is not Gaza and its not Hezbollah. It is the second largest country in the Middle East and lies thousands of kilometers away from Israel, with its eastern borders nearly 4,000 kilometers away. So the idea that Israel can successfully police Iran's current missile stockpile, including launchers the size of mere trucks, is impractical.

Replenish: And Iran borders Afghanistan and Pakistan. It has routes via friendly countries to China and Russia. So with such neighbors and routes, the notion that Israel can keep Iran from acquiring additional missile capabilities is implausible.

Capability: And Iran may not have showcased all of its missile capabilities, including precision targeting and damaging warheads, such as cluster munitions, in order to prevent full-blown regime change, attacks on industrial facilities, or full US involvement. Meaning Soroka hospital and Be'er-Sheva are more indicative of Iran's capabilities than earlier attacks.

So Iran's attack capabilities will not reach zero and their missiles won't run out. Meaning that despite Israel's dominant military and intelligence victory, an extended conflict would include routine missile fire, routine closures, routine sheltering.

REGIME CHANGE

And you say, Ariel, if you claim that even with these great victories the missile threat still cannot be mitigated, then the obvious answer is regime change. Well, unfortunately here too we hit a common fallacy.

1979: Iran's revolution was in 1979, 1979! Jimmy Carter was the US president. Menachem Begin was the Israeli Prime Minister. A 25-year-old Iranian at the time is now over 70 years old. The last Iranian Shah would be 105 years old today.

So let's change this notion that a long-awaited Iranian replacement army will ride in on tanks and jeeps, because its wheelchairs and walkers, at best.

Crown Prince: And this "Crown Prince" waiting to sweep the people of Iran off their feet left Iran before he was even of drinking age. In fact, he was sworn-in in Egypt, not in Iran. He never even ruled in Iran. So unless you're expecting the wisdom of a 12-year-old Melech Shlomo, King Solomon, you're in for a real disappointment.

Population: And let's not forget that Iran is a population that had a significant enough religious population to rebel against a secular Western lifestyle. And we are now multiple generations into an Islamic regime. So while we may hear an echo-chamber of Iranian revolutionaries on social media, the reality is this regime has survived nearly half a century; through wars, the Arab spring, embargos on goods, sanctions, crashed currencies, natural disasters.

So despite popular myths, we actually have a long-entrenched regime that has proven itself to be resilient. And an obvious and smooth transition to this mythical alternative government simply doesn't exist anymore, if it ever did.

RESULT

With all this in mind, what are we left with?

Well, we're left with a regime that has lost confidence in its military and intelligence capabilities, lost its Golden Ticket to survival, and clings to a diminished and vulnerable missile arsenal. But it still remains a country capable of causing major upheaval to world trade and world oil markets. And this risk is only a mere regime change away from falling into the hands of even more radical Islamic extremists, including influences from neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Scarred from over a decade of US involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, US President Donald Trump and America Firsters are not interested in any of this. Nation-building in the Islamic world has trapped the British, the Soviets, and the Americans over the past 200 years.

Reality: So if we're talking about what we want, sure, I also want to dust off those 1970s defense pacts between Israel, Iran, and the US. But if we're talking about reality, those days and those people are long gone.

Israel: And Israelis wonder, are we pro or against regime change in Iran? Are we interested in liberating Iran? Are we interested in liberating Gaza? Liberating Lebanon? No, no, and no.

Israel is interested in eliminating threats; current threats and future threats. And if it's no longer a threat, it's no longer our fight.