Hamas Hostage Negotiations Explained (4/2024)

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"Hamas has to hold their only card (hostages) for their only goal (survival). They have no leeway or flexibility, only permanent ceasefire."

In the news, on social media, we hear Hamas has rejected another deal, Hamas has rejected this. Why is everyone so surprised? They're surprised because they're not paying attention. Pay attention! It's not so complicated.

If you go to buy a car and everyone is selling the same car, the price is going to be lower. If you go to buy a car, and nobody has that car, the price is going to be higher. If you did basic research, you would be able to find it out. And we can do that on Hamas and Hamas's negotiating strategy and standing. It's not so complicated. Let's go.

At this point, Hamas has one goal. That goal is not to be eliminated or expelled. Not to be killed, not to be kicked out of Gaza. That's their goal. At this point, they also have one bargaining chip left. And that is the hostages.

Let's go through it. Hamas has no military. They have no helicopters. They have no planes. They have no tanks. That includes PIJ and all the other groups there. They have no offensive capabilities. Their only offensive capability, which is even arguable, is their rockets. The same rockets that have no propulsion to drive them. They have no trajectory to aim them. And they have no warhead to explode.

Now, there was a video not too long ago. A Hamas rocket hit a building. Let's say on the second floor. And if you look to the first floor, on the balcony, the flowerpot that was there was not disturbed. There was no fire. It didn't burn. It didn't even move. So we're talking about a technology that's a medieval technology. They're throwing, lobbing hot metal.

Meanwhile, they're going up against the fourth strongest, greatest military in the world, at least according to U.S. news and world reports. How they got to that doesn't matter. It could be, for the sake of this argument, it could be the 14th or the 40th.

The point is, there's one army going against a, some would say a resistance movement, a terrorist movement, who cares. It's an uprising, whatever you want to call it, in an enclosed enclave, and they are militarily at a tremendous disadvantage.

And you'll say, of course, well, what about foreign pressure on Israel? That's true. That's a tool for Hamas, the foreign pressure, and it's a tremendous one. It probably was their main one before they got the hostages. But the foreign pressure is somewhat negated, and here's why. The foreign pressure will push Israel, and it has pushed Israel.

But because October 7th was so barbaric, because of the atrocities, because it was all on GoPros, because there was so much publicity, the Israeli public will demand, even if it's difficult, even if it takes a long time, the destruction of Hamas. So at this point, yes, Hamas can leverage international pressure, but only to slow Israel, only to delay Israel. In the end, Israel will be pushed to eliminate Hamas.

So basically, the remaining card, and the only card that's left, is the hostages. That's their card. The hostages are their ticket, Hamas' ticket, to their one goal. The one goal, as we said already, is to survive, is to remain in Gaza, or to remain alive. So when you have one card and one goal, they have to be used together. That's the negotiation standing that Hamas has right now.

So when we hear that Hamas rejected this, and Hamas rejected that, we shouldn't be surprised. They have one card and one goal. They have to hold their only card until they achieve that goal in negotiations.

So the idea of having a short-term negotiation, and a this-term negotiation, and this happening, it's not relevant. They have to wait to get their only goal, which is their survival. So they will, in that sense, reject deals and negotiate, and up the pressure on Israel until they can get their one goal.

Now, with this understanding, we don't have to have pundits and everyone screaming, they rejected this and they rejected that. They don't have leeway. They don't have flexibility. They can't call for anything other than a permanent ceasefire.

Think it through. Hamas gives up its hostages, all the hostages, in exchange for a six-month deal. After six months of a ceasefire, the IDF comes back and hunts them down. And now they have nothing left. So it's not too complicated.

They must hold on to at least some hostages. Probably in the end it will be only the soldiers or only the men, until they get a full ceasefire, or until they're destroyed. Which is also why Israel, understanding this, has to know that this is a dead-end route.

The only way, and the only way that should have been done, is by force, for many principles. The obvious principle that was supposedly universal, at least years ago, was not to negotiate with terrorists, because this happens again. Obviously it's tougher when you have hundreds of hostages, including babies and women, so that's understandable.

That is why, if Israel understood this negotiation posture, they would have realized they had to go in by force and go in early by force. You can't allow for these poor hostages, women, children, old people needing medicine, being raped, to sit for half a year. Unbelievable.

That's a product of complete negligence, in terms of negotiating, in terms of putting together a strategy, of going in different directions. You want to do a siege? Do a siege. You want to go by force? Go by force. You want to negotiate? You have to get these people out. You can't go back and forth.

Now we're six months in, and they're saying, well, maybe in May, maybe we'll do this. Every day they're suffering. Every day they're being raped. What kind of strategy? This is not a strategy. This is a boondoggle.