Former CIA Case Officer Ariel Avidar on October 7th Attacks
(The following is a compiled transcript of interviews and podcasts posted on ArielAvidar.com)
Getting past the border was already a given
We've heard many times there was a tremendous security failure, there was a tremendous intelligence failure that day and I would say that that is a complete understatement.
When we say something failed, I think that means we expected it to go right. But when we talk about what happened that day, we literally had thousands of people, fighters and civilians — if we saw the videos, old people on bicycles, old men — who were entering what should be one of the most secure borders in the entire world.
But the fact that when Hamas came in — when the civilians, if we could call them that, came in — they came in with extensive plans. They said, we're going to this kibbutz and we’re going to that kibbutz. They had plans to take over and hold certain areas of the South.
Say for example, I said, tomorrow we're going to break into Fort Knox, or for those who don't know what that is, we're going to break into the Knesset. Make sure you bring your toothbrush, bring a towel, bring something to make lunch. And you’ll say to me, Ariel, excuse me, you plan to break into Fort Knox, you plan to break into the Knesset, what makes you think that you are so secure in your ability to get in that you could start planning for the next two weeks?
Apparently, for Hamas, getting past the border and getting inside, and coming and going in, and back and forth, and taking hostages at their free will for hours, was already a given. They already knew that they could get in and they could get out. So that that is not the result of a failed camera or of a failed system of the wall.
That means that we, as Israelis, we the Israeli public, we the Israeli security system, we have to worry that our entire perception and our entire understanding of how secure our border, at least the southern border, but it makes us question everything. Obviously, we have to question what we have heard and what we've understood to this day. It could be a complete fallacy. Not that it's intentional. It could very well be, and it probably is, that the security forces, the Army, and the intelligence agencies were, for sure, similarly shocked at what happened in the scale. But it seems like Hamas and those in Gaza were not shocked because they had pre-planned coming in and doing extensive damage, extensive work, well beyond merely getting past the wall.
They cannot flush a toilet in Gaza without Israeli approval
Nothing is Pleasant about what I’m about to say. We lost on October 7th, the day. ( And we lost after October 7th) when Netanyahu decided to go and grab three generals who are beholden to the United States as his War cabinet.
Now in Gaza, we control their electricity, their water, their internet, and everything that goes in. They cannot flush a toilet or turn on a light in Gaza without Israeli approval. So how is that this territory, which is probably one of the most disproportionately controlled of any conflict areas in the world, where we control everything — how is this territory continuously shooting rockets at us for years!
So the fact that they have been shooting rockets at us and we have not used any of our capabilities, tells us that we also lost before October 7th.
So now we’ve lost before October 7th. We lost on October 7th. And we lost after October 7th. We're not dealing with a winning hand. Not that we don't have the capabilities, but we don't have the political will to do it.
If we sit and blow up sand all day, how successful are we?
I don’t know where this war is headed in terms of what we, Israel, have been doing to Hamas. And the reason is that every day on the news we'll hear — and it's for us, the Israeli citizens, but it's also for Western consumption — the government is telling us we've taken out this many targets, and 6,000 targets today, and 8,000 tomorrow, and we've used this much munitions. And we think we’re successful, but we don't know what that means. What are they actually blowing up? Right now we're fighting against people, but we don't have the numbers of the people that are being killed. If we sit and blow up sand all day, how successful are we?
What we haven’t seen is the LiveStream
The leverage of the hostages was their intent, obviously. They, Hamas, had marching orders to go and bring back hostages. From what I heard of all the different accounts was to kill the men and take the women and children. Now, of course, when you start taking babies and you start to go to the level that they did with the atrocities — because the atrocities, we've heard such things. Maybe in our generation maybe we haven't heard it as often, but
if you look back at the massacres in Chevron and other massacres we've heard such things. But what we haven't seen is the intentional broadcast of it; the live stream, putting it on TV intentionally to show everyone. And I think that put Israel in a situation where Israel must act for its own public, for the political future of all of its leaders, and even for the world.
Hamas Command and Control Intact
We are two months into the war. And Hamas is able to operate (during the ceasefire) in real-time, to say get me this hostage, get me that hostage, move him here, and move him there. That they stopped shooting rockets (during the ceasefire) is also relevant, meaning that two months in, they have complete command and control structure. They're able to communicate within and say I want this guy and that guy. So these are the things we have to look at when we assess the war. And we say, oh, we're doing so well because a lot of sand is blowing up in the air. That's not how you assess the war.